Myth #1: Clinton always underperforms
That is, that even when she wins, she ins by narrower margins than the polls showed. While she has underperformed in some contests, she has overperformed in others. A few examples:
State / RCP avg. (or last poll before contest if there was no RCP avg.) / Final results--
GA / Clinton +37 / Clinton +42.9
TN / Clinton +26 / Clinton +33.7
SC / Clinton 27.5 / Clinton + 47.5
VA / Clinton +21.5 / Clinton +29.1
MS / Clinton +44 / Clinton +66.1
And there are still more--Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, etc.
Myth #2: Clinton only wins states that will be won by a Republican in November
Both Clinton and Sanders have won many states that will either be blue or red in November no matter who the Democratic nominee is. (Or do you really think Sanders could win Utah and Wyoming in the General Election?) As far as true swing states go, it's no contest. Sanders took New Hampshire and Colorado, but even if you consider Wisconsin and Michigan to be swing states (and I am dubious about that), Clinton still outpaces him with wins in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia, not to mention states that are long shots but which some Dems think can be turned, such as South Carolina and Arizona. Meanwhile she is currently ahead of Sanders in the polls by double digits in Pennsylvania, another key swing state.
Poll numbers courtesy of RealClearPolitics.
No comments:
Post a Comment